The Speech

The prepared text is here.

The Danger of Arrogance

The indespensible Ron Fournier hits an unpleasant nail on the head.

This is exactly what will get Obama in trouble, and why getting on right on Wright is crucial.

Obama's Checker's Speach

It's happening today. If Dick could do it, so can Barack. Maybe.

If Obama's message is that we are at a moment where we can get past the divisions of the past, then being forced to confront the incendiary rhetoric of his pastor in and of itself catapults down to the level he has so successfully risen above to date.

And this is the problem when you run a campaign as elevated as Obama's has been. When you're as inspirational and "different" as Obama claims to be, any taint or controversey that makes you like other polticians stains and stings all the more.

If Obama gets through this one, hurray. But it will happen again. He has to find away to go through the wringer of presidential politics, ready for the scandals, shock and mud, in a way that doesn't in and of itself invalidate the rationale of his candidacy. The mere fact of having to explain Wright's comments does threatens that rationale, perhaps fatally.

Quote for the Morning

From a spooky article in today's Post:

"Last week, the position of the Bush administration was to let markets correct themselves and to allow no bailouts and no subsidies," said William W. Beach, senior fellow of economics at the Heritage Foundation. "Somewhere over the last four days, that policy changed. They discovered the rules of the road just didn't apply."

The Nationalization of an American Bank

The historic nature of the effective nationalization of Bear Sterns is hard to underestimate.

We've said before, we ain't no economists here. But, we've never -- not once -- seen anything like it. And neither has anyone else. If only on this level:

The American Government does not nationalize. And technically, the Fed didn't -- it just gave JP Morgan the credit line to do it, and is taking control of Bear's operation as part of its secruitization process. And JP Morgan says its costing them $6B to doe the deal. Yikes!

This reveals a level of concern at the government level that we haven't seen in more than 60 years. The question is will this action help stem the panic, and fuel it. The bottom line is the Fed and Treasury see the possibility of a financial system collapse. The system probably will not, but we've gotten to the point where it could.

Who'll Flip One More Blue?

Excellent round-up by Chris Cillizza on which red state might go blue this fall, depending on who the nominee is.

If you count 'em up and take in the whole thing, the answer is clearly Obama. But doesn't that seem intuitive. Remember 2000, 2004? Which of those states, after a long campaign, is really going to flip for Hillary Clinton? I don't buy that there is even one.

Big Bank Failure on the Way?

What we don't know about economics could (and does) fill books. But, we have friends.

And one particularly smart smarty-pants, about a month ago, warned that the current economic crisis could well reach epic proportions. The bell-weather that would tell us that this more than a business cycle recession? The failure of a big American bank.

And that's what seems to be happening right now. And that bank is Bear Stearns.

The move today -- a highly unusal loan from JP Morgan to Bear, secured by the Fed -- has the air of desperation to it. Get this quote from Bear's CEO:

"Bear Stearns has been the subject of a multitude of market rumors regarding our liquidity," said Alan Schwartz, president and chief executive in Bear Stearns, in a written statement. "We have tried to confront and dispel these rumors and parse fact from fiction. Nevertheless, amidst this market chatter, our liquidity position in the last 24 hours had significantly deteriorated. We took this important step to restore confidence in us in the marketplace, strengthen our liquidity and allow us to continue normal operations."

So, without this loan, Bear Stearns would have been unable to continue normal operation -- translation: failure. They have a month, if panic doesn't do them in sooner. And perhaps they will merge or structure their way out.

But my smarty-pants friend's warning seems especially grave this morning.

Sadam/Osama: Still No Link...And That's Final

You'l be shocked to learn that there absolutely positively was no link between Sadam and Al Queda. No Way!

Anyhow, the Pentagon has made it official. They reviewed a billion documents or something to arrive at the glaringly obvious. But they won't have a breifing, put on the Ineternet or talk about it over cocktails. Apparantly you can send a SSAE and they'll drop it in the mail.

Dinah Washington: Pundit

This one is for Elliott. Or maybe Silda. Why not BOTH!

Ferraro Plagarizes Self on Racism

Good catch Politico.

Geraldine Ferraro is no more racist today than she was 20 years ago. That's nice.

Arrogant to the End

Here's the text of Client 9's resignation statement.

Does it strike anybody else as extra-arrogant? For example:

I also know that as a public servant I, and the remarkable people with whom I worked, have accomplished a great deal. Absolutely! It's been an amazing run as Guv. Really, super-duper.

I go forward with the belief, as others have said, that as human beings, our greatest glory consists not in never falling, but in rising every time we fall. Yes, Elliot, yes! This is really a glorious moment for you, your wife and just everybody. Rise, Elliot, rise!

As I leave public life, I will first do what I need to do to help and heal myself and my family. Me first! Catch the video on youtube to get the emphasis here.

Then I will try once again, outside of politics, to serve the common good and to move toward the ideals and solutions which I believe can build a future of hope and opportunity for us and for our children. Thanks for the heads-up, Client 9. Glad you have your eye on the future.

The Cruel Inconsistency of PETA

We love animals. We don't love PETA. This article in today's Times captures the organization often-masked utilitarian inhumanity. This quote puts its succinctly:

“I don’t think PETA’s argument is with us, I think it’s with themselves,” said [Michael Mountain, founder of Best Friends Animal Rescue] from Utah in a telephone interview. “It’s really difficult as an animal-rights, animal-protection, animal-whatever-you-want-to-call-it organization to explain away the fact that pretty much all the animals you rescue, you kill. It doesn’t make logical sense; it doesn’t make emotional sense.”

You Know He Wanted It!

So, we've read the Esquire piece.

It's very strange in itself, and reading the whole thing makes Fallon's resignation even stranger. A few observations:

First, it's a terrible piece of journalism. In a minor miracle of haigography, Barnett paints Fallon as part George Marshall, part George Kennan and part George Washington. He's tough, handsome, an oasis of calm in a terrifying world, he's...beautiful. It's also chock-a-block with patently silly statements (thanks to a successful diplomatic dinner in China there was "peace in our time." We hadn't noticed.) And lots of authorial clairvoyance that allows Barnett to translate direct quotes into what the Admiral really means. When Fallon declares that "Iran should be playing a contructive role...I hear this from every country in the region", Barnett channels this translation: "I've got you surrounded."

Well, its been a long time since Vidal and Mailer were writting for Esquire, so let's kindly move on.

More interesting is why a man reportedly as smart as Fallon (and there's no reason to doubt his smarts at all) would give access and quotes that anybody who knows the press knows would lead to this sort of article.

When an article like this comes out, you don't have a choice...you resign because you've effectively fired yourself. Fallon must have wanted it, or is woefully naive about media and magazine profiles; hard to believe.

So was this his final, tell-all self-inflicted coup de grace? Or a terrible media miscalculation? Read it for yourself, and consider the implications.

Oh, Gno...Gnomes!

The Sun has it

"Creepy Gnome" terrorizes South American town! People wo afraid of this little guy has better avoid some of the seedier gay bars of E. 58th Street -- he's Justin Timberlake compared to Gnomes I Gknow.

Ferarro on Obama: It's Just 'Cause He's Black

It's hard to believe she really said this. What -- exactly -- does that mean?

Who is David Paterson?

The next Governor of New York (assuming, of course, that he doesn't turn out to be client 8). Here's the Times helpful people in the news section on New York's Lt. Gov.

Aside from being legally blind -- as opposed to the merely morally blind current occupant of the governor's mansion (Sophocles: call your office) -- he would also be the first black governor of New York State. Cool!

There's a delicious irony in the media coverage of Paterson to date. The overall narative seems to be one of bemused wonder...why would the promising State Senate minority leader Paterson give up his seemingly inevitable path to Senate majority leader (one of the "three men in a room") to become the Lt. Governor...a job with "no power and little prestige."

Seems like it was a good move.

Goodbye Governor Spitzer

Unbelieveable.

Today! Fresh Sins!! ALL NEW!!!

The Vatican has some brand new sins for you to commit. So, hurry up and be the first on your block to trangess with finesse!

PA not OH...

We were almost convinced otherwise. But it turns that the two different states are in fact...two different states. Smart Dick Polman at the Philly Inquirer points out:

"For all the glib comparisons to Ohio, its rust-belt neighbor, there are significant differences that could aid [Barack] Obama. Pennsylvania has a larger black population than Ohio, larger cities, and a larger student population. In contrast to Texas, it has a small Latino population. It has populous white liberal suburbs around Philadelphia."

He goes on to outline the advantages for Hillary, but we skipped that part.

Great News From Pravda!

Headline: Orgasams May Work Unimaginable Miracles with Human Body.

Go Pravda!

In what one can only call the money quote:

During orgasm women may experience insufferable tortures. This is what sadomasochists use when they whip and spank each other.

Hot!

Obama Swings Back at Clinton...Sorta

The WaPo headline is promising...Obama Accuses Clinton of Deception.

Ah, but read on. This a timbre campaigns take on when the are losing, and the Obama campaign is right on key with it. Half hearted "attacks" (she's saying awful things about me) don't change the topic, friends; the simply sound as though they are coming from the ropes.

Clearlyno important superdelegates are buding anytime soon. All the policy positions are out there. He has to find a way to fight back to prominence...and he has to do it without Andrew Sullivan.

What's needed here is some attack dogs -- not the cnadidate himself -- letting loose on Hillary and Bill. The need to be constantly coupled, painted as part of the past and demonstrated to be grasping for power at any cost...in other, he needs to find a way to do for the Clinton's what they did to themselves in South Carolina.

Couple that with the candidate giving three major, serious policy speechs over a very short time fram. One on foriegn policy, one on the economy and globalization and one civil liberties and security. They don't even need to be new or enhanced policies....just strong loud speeches that say" competent." Its up to the Obama press team to get the media to give them prominence, which they will.

Gus Van Sant's Latest Can Only Be Great

The typicaly myopic yet verbose Manohla Dargis has an uncharacteristicaly clear eyed review here. The trailer:

The Pensylvania Chainsaw Massacre

Jonathan Chiat sums up nicely -- not completely fairly, I think, but pretty much gets it right. For example:

"...superdelegates are going to be extremely reluctant to overturn an elected delegate lead the size of Obama's. The only way to lessen that reluctance would be to destroy Obama's general election viability, so that superdelegates had no choice but to hand the nomination to her. Hence her flurry of attacks, her oddly qualified response as to whether Obama is a Muslim ("not as far as I know"), her repeated suggestions that John McCain is more qualified."

Qoute for the Morning

"It's Iowa on steroids," said T.J. Rooney, chairman of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party and a Clinton backer. "There are a lot of Democrats today who are like the dog who caught the mail truck. They finally caught it; now they don't know what to do."

From a WaPo article on Pennsylvania campaigning. An article that captures an Obama campaign still down-in-the-dumps, playing expectations games and doing nothing to restablish some competeing momemtum versus the Clintons. They sound exactly like the Hillary campaign two weeks out of Texas and Ohio -- the role reversal is stunningly complete and rapid.

Second Quote for the Morning

Is from Gail Collins:

"The Texas primary results were much closer. The white male vote, which keeps shifting, was split. I’m beginning to suspect that the white males have realized that they’re either going to be accused of racism or sexism and have therefore made a secret pact to take turns."

New Instrument...It's Art, But Is It Cool?

For everybody who's been waiting for the next ever since the Moog Synthesizer, here it is...the Tenori-ON.

Quote of the Morning

“Everybody is sort of taking a deep breath right now,” said Senator Edward M. Kennedy, Democrat of Massachusetts and an Obama supporter.

From this article in this morning's NYT summarizing the growing confusion in the Democratic establishment over who to support, and how.

Tooth and Nail

Despite the fact that Obama will maintain a delegate lead, the Clinton camps plans to use new momemtum and strong arms to accumulate enought super delegates to swing her the nomination.

In other words, if Obama enters the convention with more pledged delegates, they'll use the discredited machinery of old time democratic back rooms to get the party politicos to go with them and onto power.

Of course, that will destroy the moral of the Obama supporters, generate ill will among the faithful, divide the party and help McCain win.

But who care? The nomination will be theirs. Will the supers go along?

McCain's Stepford Victory Speach

This candidate can't read the teleprompter. This may seem minor, but guess what...it's not. His communication people need to tell him this won't fly in a race with Obama, or even Clinton. The solution is simple: McCain needs to memorize his speeches.

If he doesn't its either because a) he can't memorize them or b) no one has told him he must. If its "a" its bad, though not a sign of old age only. If it's "b" he's out of touch wiht campaign reality -- which is bad.

Predicition...watch this spring and summer. If he puts in the effort to improve speaking skills, he's confident and on his beam. If he keeps being this bad, he's either too old or arrogant to adjust, and will loose. Swear!

Tripping on Mt. Sinai

Moses was a druggie! That explains covetting your neighbors ass!

Not New But Just Stunning

Has Anyone Seen This Movie?

The Danger of Momemtum

When its all about momemtum -- which, to be fair, is what it has been all about -- the challenge is that it stops faster than it starts. From today's NYT:

"Yet the spirit of his supporters who gathered in the chilly air outside the San Antonio Memorial Auditorium, seemed shaken by his defeats. The crowd was a fraction of the size of those that assembled in giant rallies across Texas and Ohio in the past two weeks. "

If it was hard for Hillary to get back on top, we fear that it will be even harder for Obama. He has a lot of advantages still, but the one thing he can't survive is a drop in enthusiasm.

Clinton to Superdelegates...FREEZE!

So, Politico says the Clinton camp is trying to put wavering superdelagates (one word?) on ice. How, exactly? A sinister ray gun...or threats of a very very cold shoulder once Clinton II is duely installed?

More interesting, however, is whether Barack's plan for a day-after announcement have put away in the fridge. He really needs to do something big...today. Announcing 50 super-delegates (hyphenated?) would be delicious, but they are politicians, and after Hilary's big win, it seems very unlikely. If he doesn't dosomething to turn or adjust the story today, however, he will seem off his beam and the narative will steam roll ahead.

He must show fight and a viable plan to staynot just in, but on top...and show it fast and strong. Delgate math alone won't do the trick. A big symbol is required.

It's Alive! And its a ...DIVA!

Well, Andrew Sullivan is hungover.

Ron Fournier says the math is still impossible for Hillary.

The Washington Post continues the rampant stereotyping binge begun by Charlotte Allen in an article stating that gays support Hillary because:

"She's been picked on, ridiculed, bullied. Those haircuts, that laugh, the clothes. Oh, and Monica. But she never gives up. She's got good policy positions. She bullies when she needs to. She's "a diva."

Call it identity-politics-in-drag I guess.

Toyota's Teeny-Weeny CarCar

It holds three adults and one kid. And the MiniCooper just got 8" longer --wrong direction Mini People!

Fail Dogs

Someone's very funny idea. Their rules: it must be a dog. It must be failing. It must be funny

The Winner: The Kitchen Sink

It certainly feels and even looks like the Clinton "kitchen sink" strategy of throwing everything negative into the feild over the last week has had an effect.



The campaigns are, of course, looking at early exit polls and adjusting their messages accordingly. It must look pretty good for Clinton so far. Read-on in that story, however, and you'll notice that turnout numbers are amazing:

"A record 180,000 voters cast Democratic ballots in early voting in Harris County and some 300,000 more were expected today, far surpassing the 75,000 in the 2004 presidential election."

Say that again, please: 480,000 votes cast in today's primary, vs. 75,000 in the last presidential election. That's not a trend up...its a social phenomenon. And that level of turn out would -- you'd think -- help Obama.

Ohio Going For Hillary...

...at least according to the University of Cincinatti.

But remember how wrong polls of have been. It will come down to turnout, turnout and turnout.

If Hillary Clinton Can Make A Come Back, Why Not ME?????

After an inexcusible hiatus, the Life Raft makes a come back.

What have we been up to? Oh, nothing.

But things are getting interesting again as you may have noticed, so we'll just jump in as though we've never left.

The Clinton will likely threaten legal action against God is the Ohio weather forecasts are right.

Andrews Sullivan -- in a down-cycle of his Obama cruch -- is nearly abandoning hope.

Brits Urinate on Locals

Who knew that "Naked Bar" was a common pass time among british commandos? Apparently pissing is going to far, even for Prince Harry.