Who'll Flip One More Blue?

Excellent round-up by Chris Cillizza on which red state might go blue this fall, depending on who the nominee is.

If you count 'em up and take in the whole thing, the answer is clearly Obama. But doesn't that seem intuitive. Remember 2000, 2004? Which of those states, after a long campaign, is really going to flip for Hillary Clinton? I don't buy that there is even one.